A late surge in deployment in China will see the Asia-Pacific region top the 10GW mark inside one quarter for the first time, according to research by Solarbuzz.
It predicts a surge in Chinese installs will see annual demand surpass last year's levels and growth in the APAC region hit 19% compared over the previous year.
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“Although the National Energy Administration recently announced that only 3.8GW PV systems were connected to the grid, during the first three quarters of 2014, many projects have already begun construction,” said Isabella Ni, China analyst, Solarbuzz. “With a year-end surge of installations in the fourth quarter, even after three weak quarters, full-year PV demand in China will exceed its 2013 level,” she added.
Figures collated by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) have Chinese deployment in 2013 at 11.3GW suggesting that Solarbuzz believes China will install 7.5GW this quarter alone.
The country set a cap of 8GW on distributed generation projects for the year but struggled to make much headway in the first half of the year. With the removal of some red tape and local governments encouraged to incentivise rooftop projects a fourth quarter surge had been expected.
The latest edition of the Solarbuzz Asia Pacific Major PV Markets Quarterly report also predicts a 46% year-on-year growth for the Japanese market.
“Since the end of the third quarter, five regional utilities in Japan announced suspension of replies for non-residential projects; however, these issues will not significantly impact PV demand in Japan through 2015,” said Holly Hu, China analyst at Solarbuzz.
Despite positive developments in Japan, Hu believes the potential of India, and its 100GW target, could outshine it.
“India may become the most exciting PV market in APAC region during the next several years,” Hu said. “Since the new prime minister, Narendra Modii, came on board, the government of India has announced many ambitious solar PV development plans.”
Other markets with heavyweight potential include Pakistan, Thailand and Philippines, Solarbuzz said.